Boston Red Sox vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction, Preview and Odds - 09/05/2025

Game Time: 9:40 pm ET, Friday, September 5, 2025

Venue:  Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ

Where to Watch:  NESN, DBACKS.tv 

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Red Sox -132, Diamondbacks +108; Over/Under:  8.5 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Red Sox -130, Diamondbacks +110; Over/Under:  8.5 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Red Sox -130, Diamondbacks +110; Over/Under:  8.5 runs

Boston Red Sox:  78-63 (3rd place, AL East)

Arizona Diamondbacks:  70-71 (4th place, NL West)

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Boston Red Sox:  7-3 last 10

Arizona Diamondbacks:  6-4 last 10

The Red Sox are entering this series off a loss and won their 3-game series against the Cleveland Guardians 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 78-63 record overall and have a road record of 34-35. This is the series opener of a 3-game series with the Diamondbacks on Friday and they have Thursday off as a day of rest. Their offense ranks 8th in the MLB with a .751 OPS. Brennan Bernardino was their starting pitcher on Wednesday while rookie pitcher Payton Tolle is making his start in this game on Friday. He is 0-0 with a 3.38 ERA this season. His team lost their only game this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season appearance, he allowed 2 ER, 0 HR, and 2 BB with 8 SO on 3 hits through 5.1 IP against the Pittsburgh Pirates.

The Diamondbacks are entering this series off a win and won their 3-game series against the Texas Rangers 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 70-71 record overall and have a home record of 36-33. This is the 1st game of a 3-game series with the Red Sox on Friday and they have Thursday off as a day of rest. Their offense ranks 5th in the MLB with a .758 OPS. Zac Gallen was their starting pitcher on Wednesday while Eduardo Rodríguez is making his start in this game on Friday. He is 6-8 with a 5.40 ERA this season. His team won 5 of their last 6 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 0 earned runs, 0 homers, and 4 walks with 4 strikeouts on 4 hits through 6 innings pitched against the Los Angeles Dodgers.

The current betting odds have the Red Sox listed as a slight favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Red Sox have looked really good in their games this season with their 78-63 record overall which has them right in the middle of the AL East and in a Wild Card spot. They haven't been a great road team though with their 34-35 road record this season. Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks haven't looked good in their games this season with their 70-71 record overall which has them right near the bottom of the NL West. They have looked better in their own ballpark though with their 36-33 home record this year. The Diamondbacks have looked good lately as they are 6-4 in their last 10 games, but the Red Sox are 7-3 and have been the hotter team lately. The Red Sox also have the better pitching matchup here and they can take advantage of that. The Red Sox are going with rookie starter Tolle and he has only had 1 start in his career. His team lost that game, but he only gave up 2 earned runs in 5.1 innings and also has a great offense to help him out here. The Diamondbacks are going with Rodriguez in this one and he hasn't looked good this season. He is 6-8 with a 5.40 ERA and he has been giving up quite a few runs all year. His team has won 5 of their last 6 games with him starting and he is coming off a great start in which he gave up no runs, but that hasn't been a common theme for him this year and the Red Sox do have one of the best offenses in the MLB. Tolle is only making his 2nd career start here, but Rodriguez still can't be trusted to have back-to-back good starts against top offenses in the MLB. The best way to place a bet here is on the Red Sox to cover the spread in this game. 

Red Sox Diamondbacks Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Friday, September 5, 2025 (9:40 pm ET start time) is Red Sox 8 Diamondbacks 4.

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Boston Red Sox: 18-24 (-9.5 units) on the moneyline against NL West opponents. 236-228 (-10.4 units) on the moneyline in all games. 130-106 (-19.6 units) on the moneyline as a favorite of -110 or higher. 42-29 OVER on the road with a money line of -100 to -150.

Arizona Diamondbacks: 252-230 (+11.6 units) on the moneyline in all games. 107-118 (+21.7 units) on the moneyline as an underdog of +100 or higher. 127-127 (+13.3 units) on the moneyline when playing against a team with a winning record. 23-15 OVER against AL East opponents.

Boston Red Sox:  R. Anthony (RF) Ten Day IL - Oblique. M. Mayer (3B) Sixty Day IL - Wrist. R. Fitts (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Biceps. W. Abreu (RF) Ten Day IL - Calf. L. Guerrero (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. T. Houck (SP) Sixty Day IL - Flexor. H. Dobbins (SP) Sixty Day IL - ACL. L. Hendriks (RP) Sixty Day IL - Hip. J. Winckowski (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. T. Casas (1B) Sixty Day IL - Knee. K. Crawford (SP) Sixty Day IL - Knee. P. Sandoval (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.

Arizona Diamondbacks:  L. Gurriel Jr. (LF) Ten Day IL - ACL. P. Smith (1B) Ten Day IL - Quadriceps. A. DeSclafani (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Thumb. K. Ginkel (RP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. T. Henry (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. C. Montes De Oca (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. J. Martinez (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. C. Mena (SP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. C. Burnes (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. A. Puk (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. B. Walston (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.

“I told him to envision [stepping in for] ALCS, first at-bat. That's what I told him. Just put that goal in your mind and hopefully that happens.” - Alex Cora after his team’s loss against the Guardians in their game on Wednesday.

“I had a few minute conversation with [Gurriel] today when I got here, and he's just trying to understand why it happened and what the next several days and months and weeks, potentially a year will look like. I hurt for him and I could tell he was hurting. It's a very tough time for this team right now. It's one more hit that just keeps coming our way, right?” - Torey Lovullo after his team’s win against the Rangers in their game on Tuesday.

Nate Eaton (R) 3B

Alex Bregman (R) DH

Trevor Story (R) SS

Romy Gonzalez (R) 1B

Rob Refsnyder (R) RF

Jarren Duran (L) LF

Ceddanne Rafaela (R) CF

Nick Sogard (S) 2B

Connor Wong (R) C

Geraldo Perdomo (S) SS

Ketel Marte (S) 2B

Corbin Carroll (L) RF

Gabriel Moreno (R) C

Adrian Del Castillo (L) DH

Blaze Alexander (R) 3B

Alek Thomas (L) CF

Tyler Locklear (R) 1B

Jake McCarthy (L) LF

Batting Average:  Nathaniel Lowe (.324)

Hits:  Jarren Duran (140)

Home Runs:  Trevor Story (23)

RBI:  Trevor Story (88)

Stolen Bases:  Trevor Story (25)

Wins:  Garrett Crochet (14)

Saves:  Aroldis Chapman (28)

ERA:  Nick Burdi (0.00)

Batting Average:  Ketel Marte (.290)

Hits:  Geraldo Perdomo (146)

Home Runs:  Corbin Carroll (29)

RBI:  Geraldo Perdomo (88)

Stolen Bases:  Geraldo Perdomo (24)

Wins:  Brandon Pfaadt (12)

Saves:  Justin Martinez (5)

ERA:  Christian Montes De Oca (0.00)

Managers:

Boston Red Sox: Álex Cora (5th season)

Arizona Diamondbacks: Torey Lovullo (9th season)