Boise State Broncos vs Fresno State Bulldogs Prediction, Picks and Game Preview - 10/10/2026

Game Time: 10:30 pm ET, Saturday, October 10, 2026

Venue:  Valley Children's Stadium, Fresno, CA

Where to Watch:  CW

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Boise State -6.5, Fresno State +6.5; Over/Under:  48.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Boise State -6.5, Fresno State +6.5; Over/Under:  48.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Boise State -6.5, Fresno State +6.5; Over/Under:  48.5 points

Boise State Broncos:  4-1 (1-0) (1st place, Pac-12)

Fresno State Bulldogs:  4-1 (1-0) (1st place, Pac-12)

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Boise State Broncos:  won their last game at home against the Utah State Aggies 37-18.

Fresno State Bulldogs:  won their last game on the road against the Washington State Cougars 26-6.

Boise State is entering this game with a 4-1 record overall and they have a 1-0 record in their conference games too. They are 3-0 in their home games, 1-1 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They won their last game against Utah State 37-18. Maddux Madsen was the starting QB and he completed 17/21 passes for 244 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Dylan Riley led the team in rushing yards with 93 and 2 TDs. Rasean Jones led the receivers with 88 receiving yards on 5 receptions. Sherrod Smith led the defense in that game with 7 tackles while Madden Soliai, Lopez Sanusi, Jayden Virgin, David Latu, and Roman Caywood each led the defense in sacks with 1. Jake Ripp came away with the only interception for them in that one.

 

 

 

Fresno State is entering this game with a 4-1 record overall and they have a 1-0 record in their conference games too. They are 2-0 in their home games, 2-1 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They won their last game against Washington State 26-6. Jayden Mandal was the starting QB and he completed 24/33 passes for 245 passing yards, 0 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Rayshon Luke led the team in rushing yards with 46. Josiah Freeman led the receivers with 61 receiving yards on 7 receptions. Dylan Hampsten, Gerayas Grimes, and K'Vion Thunderbird each led the defense in that game with 5 tackles while Dylan Hampsten led the defense in sacks with 1.5. Justin Johnson came away with the only interception for them in that one.

The current betting odds have Boise State listed as a 6.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Boise State has looked good in their games this season with their 4-1 record overall and their 1-0 conference record which has them right near the top of the Pac-12. They haven't been a great road team though with their 1-1 road record this year. Meanwhile, Fresno State has looked good in their games this season with their 4-1 record overall and their 1-0 conference record which has them right near the top of the Pac-12. They have looked better on their home field too with their 2-0 home record this season. Fresno State is coming off a 26-6 win over Wazzu in their last one and they have looked a lot better this season than they have in previous years. Their defense has looked great and hasn't been giving up many points, but their offense has been an issue for them. They had trouble putting up points in their 1st conference game last week and their only loss this season was against USC who is a really good team with a lot more talent, but USC also has a bad defense and Fresno State was the 1 team this season that USC has been able to shut down so far, Fresno State getting shut out in that one. Boise State has had great teams over the last few years and they are the best program in this new Pac-12. They are coming off a 37-18 win over Utah State in their last one and they will be looking to once again represent the group of 6 in the CFP, making an appearance in the CFP 2 years ago. Boise State is the more talented team here and they are definitely going to bring their best effort since Fresno State has owned this series in recent years. The best way to place a bet here is on Boise State to cover the spread in this game. 

Boise State Fresno State Prediction:  Our NCAAF Pick for Saturday, October 10, 2026 (10:30 pm ET start time) is Boise State 34 Fresno State 24.

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Boise State Broncos: 44-28 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points. 27-18 ATS when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 75%). 24-15 ATS against teams with a turnover margin of +1 per game or better. 40-16 UNDER vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season. 15-3 UNDER vs. good defensive teams who give up 17 or less points/game.

Fresno State Bulldogs: 29-44 ATS vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 8 or more passing yards/att. 1-4 ATS when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 75%). 1-4 ATS after 3 or more consecutive straight up wins. 28-14 UNDER after 3 or more consecutive wins against the spread. 15-8 UNDER as a home underdog of 7 points or less.

Boise State Broncos:  C. Bates (WR) Questionable - Undisclosed. S. Gaines (RB) Questionable - Upper Body.

Fresno State Bulldogs:  R. Luke (RB) Questionable - Concussion. B. Ramirez (RB) Out - Undisclosed.

“I hear all the time ‘Well, is this a rivalry game?’ and all that. And I’m like, well shoot, since ’22 we’ve just gotten beat. So call that what you want to call it.” - Spencer Danielson on his team’s upcoming game against Fresno State this week. 

“A well-coached football team. Spencer (Danielson) does an outstanding job. They’re the standard of—and I’ll say the Pac-12, regardless of the league—right now. They’ve won three (straight) conference championships. They’ve been to the College Football Playoff. Right now, most of the prognosticators are penciling them in (to the playoff).” - Matt Entz on his team’s upcoming game against Boise State this week. 

WR Wright, Akeem

WR Jones, Rasean

WR Bates, Cam

TE Wagner, Matt

QB Madsen, Maddux

RB Riley, Dylan

WR Freeman, Josiah

WR Avit, Ezekiel

WR McClain, Jahlil

TE Appleget, Jake

QB Mandal, Jayden

RB Luke, Rayshon

Passing: Maddux Madsen (1,058)

Rushing: Dylan Riley (685)

Receiving: Rasean Jones (359)

Touchdowns: Dylan Riley (5)

Passing: Jayden Mandal (1,034)

Rushing: Rayshon Luke (286)

Receiving: Josiah Freeman (322)

Touchdowns: Bryson Donelson (4)

Coaches:

Boise State Broncos: Spencer Danielson (4th season)

Fresno State Bulldogs: Matt Entz (2nd season)