Baylor Bears vs SMU Mustangs Prediction, Picks and Game Preview - 09/06/2025

Game Time: 12:00 pm ET, Saturday, September 6, 2025

Venue:  Gerald J. Ford Stadium, Dallas, TX 

Where to Watch:  The CW Network

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Baylor +3, SMU -3; Over/Under:  64.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Baylor +3, SMU -3; Over/Under:  65.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Baylor +3, SMU -3; Over/Under:  65.5 points

Baylor Bears:  0-1 (0-0) (13th place, Big 12)

SMU Mustangs:  1-0 (0-0) (6th place, ACC)

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Baylor Bears:  lost their last game at home against the Auburn Tigers 38-24.

SMU Mustangs:  won their last game at home against the East Texas A&M-Commerce Lions 42-13.

Baylor is entering this game with a 0-1 record overall and they have a 0-0 record in their conference games too. They are 0-1 in their home games, 0-0 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They lost their last game against Auburn 38-24. Sawyer Robertson was the starting QB and he completed 27/48 passes for 419 passing yards, 3 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Bryson Washington led the team in rushing yards with 54. Kole Wilson led the receivers with 134 receiving yards on 8 receptions. Keaton Thomas led the defense in that game with 10 solo tackles and 5 assisted tackles while Kendrick Simpkins led the defense in sacks with 1. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.

 

 

 

SMU is entering this game with a 1-0 record overall and they have a 0-0 record in their conference games too. They are 1-0 in their home games, 0-0 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They won their last game against East Texas A&M-Commerce 42-13. Kevin Jennings was the starting QB and he completed 22/30 passes for 260 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Chris Johnson Jr. led the team in rushing yards with 44 and 1 TD. Romello Brinson led the receivers with 121 receiving yards on 7 receptions and 1 TD. Brandon Booker led the defense in that game with 4 solo tackles and 1 assisted tackle while Cameron Robertson, Kevin Allen, and Terry Webb each led the defense in sacks with 1. Ahmaad Moses came away with the only interception for them in that one.

The current betting odds have SMU listed as a 3 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. SMU looked really good in their season opener, beating East Texas A&M 42-13. They were playing against a team from the FCS so they weren't really tested in that game, but the offense was still rolling and picked up right where they left off last season. Offense was their strength last year and they are going to be able to put up some points at home against this Baylor defense that was shredded in week 1. Meanwhile, Baylor is 0-1 this season after losing their season opener to Auburn at home. Auburn was in firm control of that entire game as they were always ahead, forcing Baylor to play catch up the whole time. Their offense was keeping them in that game, but their defense couldn't make a stop when they needed it most and that led to Auburn staying in control of the game. Baylor did show some great signs on offense and that SMU defense isn't great so Baylor will surely put up some points here, but their defense won't be able to keep them in this game and will have them playing catch up against a better offense once again. The best way to place a bet here is on SMU to cover the spread in this game. 

Baylor SMU Prediction:  Our NCAAF Pick for Saturday, September 6, 2025 (12:00 pm ET start time) is SMU 42 Baylor 35.

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Baylor Bears: 6-11 ATS in a road game where the total is between 63.5 and 70. 19-25 ATS off a home loss by 14 or more points. 11-6 OVER in a road game where the total is between 63.5 and 70. 19-10 OVER on the road off a home loss.

SMU Mustangs: 10-3 ATS in home lined games. 9-3 ATS as a home favorite. 12-7 ATS in games played on turf. 12-7 OVER in games played on turf. 8-5 OVER in home lined games.

Baylor Bears:  C. Williams IV (S) Questionable - Knee. J. Marshall (DL) Questionable - Unknown. J. Hagman (RB) Doubtful - Undisclosed. D. Edeni (WR) Doubtful - Undisclosed. D. Pendergrass (RB) Out - Foot. D. Turner (S) Out - Knee.

SMU Mustangs:  A. Kilgore (LB) Questionable - Leg. J. Hudson (WR) Questionable - Upper Body. T. Van Dyke (QB) Out - Knee. R. Maryland (TE) Questionable - Knee.

“We needed to create some momentum and keep the ball.” - Dave Aranda after his team’s loss against Auburn in their last game. 

“Good to be 1-0, definitely would have like to have played a little better. There was a combination of Game 1, combination of playing a lot of new guys, and a combination of us not playing well. First half, particularly, offensively." - Rhett Lashlee after his team’s win against East Texas A&M-Commerce in their last game. 

WR Hawkins, Ashtyn

WR Cameron, Josh

WR Wilson, Kole 

TE Trigg, Michael

QB Robertson, Sawyer

RB Washington, Bryson

FB Polley, Hawkins

WR Brinson, Romello

WR Hudson, Jordan

WR Maryland, RJ

TE Hibner, Matthew

QB Jennings, Kevin

RB McFall, Derrick

Passing: S. Robertson (419)

Rushing: B. Washington (54)

Receiving: K. Wilson (134)

Touchdowns: M. Trigg (1)

Passing: K. Jennings (260)

Rushing: C. Johnson Jr. (44)

Receiving: R. Brinson (121)

Touchdowns: R. Brinson (1)

Coaches:

Baylor Bears: Dave Aranda (6th season)

SMU Mustangs: Rhett Lashlee (4th season)