August Starting Pitching NL Overachievers

 Here are four National League starters that have posted strong August returns but may be at risk of seeing a decline in the final month of the regular season. Pressure will climb as the playoff chase heats up and there are red flags in the recent numbers for these four pitchers. Use caution is considering supporting these starters on the mound in September. 

 

 

With the injury to Zack Wheeler, the Phillies have needed pitching depth to emerge, and veteran Taijuan Walker has welcomed the call so far. Walker revived his career with the Mets in 2022, and he delivered a charmed 31 start season for the Phillies in 2023. Last year Walker proved unusable on the mound, struggling in various roles to the tune of a 7.10 ERA in nearly 84 innings of work. His K/9 this season is nearly identical to last season and his FIP is 4.77, but Walker has delivered a 3.44 ERA, including a glowing 2.28 ERA in four August starts. Two of those four starts came vs. the struggling Nationals however, and Walker has marginal numbers in his home starts this season with a 4.25 ERA in Philadelphia. His road splits are strong, but he has also had a few favorable matchups on the road since climbing back into the rotation, facing slumping offenses for a few successful outings. Walker has a career 4.47 FIP and 4.14 ERA and that should be the expectation in Walker starts in September. 

 

 

Ray made this list last month after a strong month of July buoyed by a complete game early in the month. Ray has put forth a 2.93 ERA in his innings in August so far, but opposing batters are hitting 52 points higher in August compared to his July splits. Ray also has just a 7.0 K/9 in five August starts, for a pitcher that has often been on the MLB leaderboard in strikeout rate. Four of his five August starts have been on the road, and he has faced likely playoff teams in four of five outings as well as there is some hope that Ray can have a strong finish to the season. Based on his past success and Cy Young win, Ray is commanding favorite pricing vs. bad teams and near-even pricing vs. good teams, however. The Giants are 18-28 since July 1 and haven’t had a winning month since April as this is a sinking squad that could get even worse as they get closer to being officially eliminated from the playoff race. 

 

 

While Miami isn’t chasing the postseason, the Marlins have played well in the summer months, and Eury Perez has been a big part of a solid rotation. Perez has a 3.44 ERA in 14 starts, making his way back from missing 2024 with Tommy John surgery. Perez hasn’t matched his prior strikeout rates and after an amazing run in July, August has offered signs of concern. Perez allowed a total of four runs in five July starts and he has allowed 14 runs in his past four starts since a great first start in August. The Marlins have not let Perez throw more than 94 pitches in a start this season and that has meant reaching six innings has been difficult. With his 6’8” frame while still only 22 years old, Perez has a bright future, but he will have a difficult time maintaining his season pace for another month. Perez has a 5.58 FIP in his past four starts despite his solid season line as there is a risk he will struggle down the stretch. 

 

 

36-year-old left-hander Jose Quintana has 112 career wins and has found a second life to his career. Best known for his success pitching with the White Sox and Cubs in the 2010s, he didn’t have much MLB success in 2020 and 2021 before finding an opportunity in 2022 to revive his career. He had a solid season for the Mets last year and has been a great addition for Milwaukee, posting 20 starts for the NL leaders. Quintana has just a 6.1 K/9 however, the lowest since his rookie season in 2012 while his FIP of 4.77 towers over his 3.32 ERA. August has been his best month this season with a 2.83 ERA, even with only a minimal increase in his strikeout counts. In his five August starts as the Brewers have been on a roll, Quintana has stranded over 91 percent of his baserunners and not surprisingly, none of the five teams he has faced would make the playoffs as it has been a favorable path. Milwaukee’s incredible winning ways will keep the veteran left-hander facing favorite pricing in many matchups, but some disappointing starts may be ahead.