August Starting Pitching AL Overachievers

 

Here are four American League starters that have posted strong August returns but may be at risk of seeing a decline in the final month of the regular season. Pressure will climb as the playoff chase heats up and there are red flags in the recent numbers for these four pitchers. Use caution is considering supporting these starters on the mound in September. 
 

 

The Guardians have been a streaky squad as the offense got on a roll in July and early August, climbing right back into the wild card race and even getting within five games of Detroit in the AL Central race. Cleveland has since put forth a 1-9 run since mid-August to fall back below .500. Cleveland is only 12-14 behind Gavin Williams this season, but Williams has been arguably the most reliable starter for the Guardians in recent weeks with a 2.52 ERA since the All-Star Break. Williams has a 3.96 FIP in that span however and has caught some breaks with a .214 BABIP and a strand rate of nearly 89 percent in that run, both figures well off his norms. Williams got attention for his near no-hitter in early August which was his fourth straight quality start out of the break, but since that 126-pitch effort he has failed to deliver a quality start, with a 6.20 FIP in three starts and big jumps in his walk and home run rates. The bullpen for Cleveland behind Williams is also weaker than it was earlier in the season when Emmanuel Clase was still with the team. 

 

 

Giolito won 10 or more games four times in five years for the White Sox from 2018 to 2022, with the only exception the shortened 2020 season in which he pitched well and helped put Chicago in the playoffs for the first time since 2008. His 2023 season was an adventure, struggling for Chicago before being traded to the Angels at the deadline, only to eventually be released and picked up by Cleveland for September, winding up with 15 losses in a tough season to put a great dent in his career trajectory. After signing with Boston ahead of the 2024 season, he wound up having UCL surgery and missed the entire year. He has found new life in his career with the Red Sox this season with a 3.72 ERA and an 8-2 record in 20 starts. His FIP is 4.37 however and his K/9 is well below his averages in his best seasons with Chicago. So far in August his K/9 is just 5.3 with a 4.2 BB/9 but he has somehow managed a steady 3.42 ERA in four starts next to a 4.98 FIP. Boston is in a tight AL wild card race and Giolito will be a risky option to support in big games down the stretch. 

 

 Just as the Yankees have needed a boost, rookie Cam Schlittler has seized his opportunity, posting a 2.75 ERA in his first eight career starts. Schlittler has struggled with walks with 19 allowed in just over 42 innings and he has been very fortunate to strand over 90 percent of his baserunners so far in his career. While his ERA is 2.76, his FIP is 4.20 and over his last three starts he has allowed just seven hits and no home runs. Not coincidently he has faced three teams that gutted their rosters at the trade deadline and are featuring several borderline minor leaguers in the back of their lineups for several fortunate matchups. Schlittler wasn’t dominant in his AAA starts and was in AA most of the first half of the season as this immediate rise to MLB success as a starter wasn’t expected for the 2022 7th round pick, and that level of pitching shouldn’t be banked on in September. 

 

 

Alexander is easy to root for as a career minor league that started his career with the Angels in 2017 has journeyed back to the MLB level after it seemed like his innings in 2022 for Milwaukee would be all his career would hold. After finding an opportunity with the Athletics early this season, Alexander was cut after he allowed nine runs at Dodger Stadium in May. Houston’s injuries forced some creativity with the roster, and Alexander was given an opportunity and is running with it, featuring a 2.72 ERA in 43 innings with the Astros. Alexander has a 6.9 K/9 and has been helped by a .252 BABIP in his innings with Houston as his FIP is 3.91. After posting back-to-back scoreless outings in early August, he has navigated significant baserunners in his last two starts to keep his season line respectable. With his experience, Alexander might still be useful for an occasional start, but he shouldn’t be expected to provide quality outings down the stretch as Houston looks to lock up the AL West.