by Rod Pearson
Tuesday, Oct 27, 2026
Game Time: 1:00 pm ET, Sunday, November 1, 2026
Venue: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL
Where to Watch: FOX
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: Falcons +2.5, Buccaneers -2.5; Over/Under: 46.5 points
Bet365: Point Spread: Falcons +2, Buccaneers -2; Over/Under: 46.5 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: Falcons +2, Buccaneers -2; Over/Under: 46 points
Season Record
Atlanta Falcons: 3-4 (2nd place, NFC South)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2-5 (3rd place, NFC South)
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Recent Form
Atlanta Falcons: won their last game at home against the San Francisco 49ers 29-20.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: won their last game on the road against the Carolina Panthers 43-13.
Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Preview and Analysis
The Falcons are entering this game with a 3-4 record overall and they have a 1-1 record in their divisional games too. They are 1-3 in their home games, 2-1 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They won their last game against the San Francisco 49ers 29-20. Michael Penix Jr. was the starting QB and he completed 25/34 passes for 213 passing yards, 3 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Bijan Robinson led the team in rushing yards with 63. Drake London led the receivers with 66 receiving yards on 7 receptions and 1 TD. Kendal Daniels led the defense in that game with 11 solo tackles while Maason Smith and Za'Darius Smith each led the defense in sacks with 1. Kendal Daniels and Jessie Bates III each came away with 1 interception for them in that one.
The Buccaneers are entering this game with a 2-5 record overall and they have a 1-0 record in their divisional games too. They are 0-4 in their home games, 2-1 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They won their last game against the Carolina Panthers 43-13. Baker Mayfield was the starting QB and he completed 7/11 passes for 64 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 0 interceptions. Bucky Irving led the team in rushing yards with 106 and 2 TDs. Tez Johnson led the receivers with 33 receiving yards on 2 receptions and 1 TD. Josiah Trotter led the defense in that game with 10 solo tackles while YaYa Diaby led the defense in sacks with 3. Tykee Smith and Zyon McCollum each came away with 1 interception for them in that one.
Falcons vs Buccaneers Prediction
The current betting odds have the Buccaneers listed as a 2.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Buccaneers haven't looked good in their games this season with their 2-5 record overall which has them right near the bottom of the NFC South. They have looked terrible on their home field too with their 0-4 home record this season. Meanwhile, the Falcons haven't looked great in their games this season with their 3-4 record overall, but that record has them right near the top of the NFC South. They have been a good road team too with their 2-1 road record this year. The Falcons are coming off a big 29-20 win over the undefeated 49ers and that win is going to give them a ton of momentum as they are right in this division race. Their offense has looked great this season when Penix has played, but the defense has still been up and down. This is a big divisional road game for them and the Buccaneers have some momentum of their own now. The Buccaneers are coming off a huge 43-13 road win over the Panthers in Baker Mayfield's return and they showed everyone that they are back and not out of this division just yet. A win here would put them ahead of the Falcons and the current leaders of the division, the Carolina Panthers, are only leading the division with a .500 record. Mayfield didn't even look great in his return with less than 100 passing yards, but they really didn't need him to do much with their rushing attack taking over. The Bucs were the best team in this division entering the season and after a really rough start, they are starting to get healthy and are turning the corner now. The best way to place a bet here is on the Buccaneers to cover the spread in this game.
Falcons Buccaneers Prediction: Our NFL Pick for Sunday, November 1, 2026 (1:00 pm ET start time) is Buccaneers 28 Falcons 24.
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NFL Betting Trends
Atlanta Falcons: 7-4 ATS as a road underdog of 7 points or less. 9-5 ATS on the road against conference opponents. 8-3 ATS on the road after playing a game at home. 11-4 OVER versus good rushing teams - averaging 4.5 rushing yards/carry or more. 8-1 OVER versus good rushing teams - averaging 130 rushing yards/game or more.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 4-10 ATS as a home favorite. 3-9 ATS in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points. 3-8 ATS after scoring 30 points or more last game. 8-4 OVER in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points. 7-1 OVER after a win by 14 or more points.
Key Injuries
Atlanta Falcons: None.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: None.
Notable Quotes
“That’s a great recipe for winning in this league.” - Kevin Stefanski after his team’s win against the 49ers in their last game.
“He made the plays when we needed them. He didn't need to make many. When you have 49 runs, for a quarterback coming off an injury, that made the day easy for him.” - Todd Bowles after his team’s win against the Panthers in their last game.
Starting Lineups
Atlanta Falcons
WR London, Drake
WR Dotson, Jahan
WR Branch, Zachariah
TE Pitts Sr., Kyle
QB Penix Jr., Michael
RB Robinson, Bijan
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
WR Hurst III, Ted
WR Johnson, Tez
WR Godwin Jr., Chris
TE Otton, Cade
QB Mayfield, Baker
RB Irving, Bucky
Statistical Leaders
Atlanta Falcons
Passing: Michael Penix Jr. (1,157)
Rushing: Bijan Robinson (704)
Receiving: Drake London (616)
Touchdowns: Bijan Robinson (5)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Passing: Baker Mayfield (679)
Rushing: Bucky Irving (558)
Receiving: Chris Godwin Jr. (243)
Touchdowns: Bucky Irving (5)
Coaches:
Atlanta Falcons: Kevin Stefanski (1st season)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Todd Bowles (5th season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
