Atlanta Braves vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction, Preview and Odds - 07/09/2026

Game Time: 6:40 pm ET, Thursday, July 9, 2026

Venue:  PNC Park, Pittsburgh, PA

Where to Watch:  MLB TV

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Braves -118, Pirates -102; Over/Under:  9 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Braves -115, Pirates -105; Over/Under:  9 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Braves -115, Pirates -105; Over/Under:  9 runs

Atlanta Braves:  52-38 (1st place, NL East)

Pittsburgh Pirates:  47-45 (4th place, NL Central)

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Atlanta Braves:  3-7 last 10

Pittsburgh Pirates:  6-4 last 10

The Braves are entering this series off a loss and split their 4-game series against the New York Mets 2-2 in their last series. They enter this game with a 52-38 record overall and have a road record of 25-20. This is the series finale of a 3-game series with the Pirates on Thursday with the 2nd game still to be played on Wednesday. The Braves lost the series opener on Tuesday. Their offense ranks 14th in the MLB with a .727 OPS. Grant Holmes is their starting pitcher on Wednesday while Bryce Elder is making his start in this game on Thursday. He is 5-6 with a 4.01 ERA this season. His team lost their last 3 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season appearance, he allowed 5 ER, 2 HR, and 1 BB with 4 SO on 5 hits through 4 IP against the San Francisco Giants.

The Pirates are entering this series off a win and won their 3-game series against the Washington Nationals 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 47-45 record overall and have a home record of 24-22. This is the 3rd game of a 3-game series with the Braves on Thursday with the 2nd game of this series still to be played on Wednesday. The Pirates won the 1st game of this series on Tuesday. Their offense ranks 2nd in the MLB with a .766 OPS. Jared Jones is their starting pitcher on Wednesday while Mitch Keller is making his start in this game on Thursday. He is 6-6 with a 5.02 ERA this season. His team lost 2 of their last 3 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 5 earned runs, 3 homers, and 0 walks with 1 strikeout on 8 hits through 6 innings pitched against the Washington Nationals.

The current betting odds have the Pirates listed as a slight underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Pirates have looked good in their games this season with their 47-45 record overall, but that record has them right near the bottom of the NL Central. They have looked good in their own ballpark though with their 24-22 home record this season. Meanwhile, the Braves have looked great in their games this season with their 52-38 record overall which has them right at the top of the NL East with one of the best records in MLB. They have been a good road team too with their 25-20 road record this year. The Braves had a really hot start to the season with one of the best offenses in MLB, but that offense has been slipping now and lately they haven't looked great, going 3-7 in their last 10 games. The Pirates have been up and down all season, but they do have one of the best offenses in the league at the moment and they are starting to get hot now too, going 6-4 in their last 10 games. Keller is on the mound for the Pirates in this one and he hasn't looked good this season. He is 6-6 with a 5.02 ERA and the team hasn't had a ton of success with him lately. They have lost 2 of their last 3 games with him starting and he just gave up 5 earned runs in his last start too, but he wasn't pitching this badly to start the season and he does have the better offense behind him in this home start. Elder is on the mound for the Braves here and he hasn't looked any better this season either. He is 5-6 with a 4.01 ERA and he has been giving up a ton of runs lately as he has been falling apart. The team has lost 3 games in a row now with him starting and he is coming off another bad start in which he gave up 5 earned runs, something that has been a common theme for him lately. Both teams have had their issues with pitching lately, but the Pirates are the hotter team at home and should have the edge in this one with the better offense. The best way to place a bet here is on the Pirates to win this game. 

Braves Pirates Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Thursday, July 9, 2026 (6:40 pm ET start time) is Pirates 8 Braves 6.

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Atlanta Braves: 38-39 (-11.7 units) on the moneyline against NL Central opponents. 217-199 (-48 units) on the moneyline in all games. 105-104 (-18.8 units) on the moneyline in road games. 26-16 OVER in road games. 

Pittsburgh Pirates: 47-43 (+9.1 units) on the moneyline against NL East opponents. 82-92 (+8 units) on the moneyline as an underdog of +100 to +150. 116-111 (+8.4 units) on the moneyline vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse. 31-15 OVER in home games.

Atlanta Braves:  M. Perez (SP) Fifteen Day - Forearm. H. Kim (SS) Ten Day IL - Finger. R. Suarez (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Elbow. S. Strider (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. R. Acuna Jr. (RF) Ten Day IL - Hamstring. S. Murphy (C) Sixty Day IL - Finger. A. Smith-Shawver (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. J. Wentz (RP) Sixty Day IL - Knee. J. Jimenez (RP) Sixty Day IL - Knee. S. Schwellenbach (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.

Pittsburgh Pirates:  K. Griffin (SS) Ten Day IL - Finger. E. Sisk (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Elbow. S. Horwitz (1B) Ten Day IL - Hamstring. W. Dotel (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Lat. O. Cruz (CF) Ten Day IL - Hand. C. Devenski (RP) Sixty Day IL - Illness.

“Those are conversations as you move forward, but you’ve got [Martin] Pérez who just went on the IL. So it’s a numbers game there. But those conversations about the rotation are almost day to day for much of this year. So I think it will continue to be that way.” - Walt Weiss after his team’s loss against the Pirates in their game on Tuesday. 

“It was pretty special to watch. That was probably the best performance I've seen from a teammate since I've been in the big leagues.” - Paul Skenes on Ryan O’Hearn after their win against the Braves in their game on Tuesday.

Michael Harris II (L) CF

Ozzie Albies (S) 2B

Matt Olson (L) 1B

Drake Baldwin (L) C

Mauricio Dubón (R) LF

Dominic Smith (L) DH

Austin Riley (R) 3B

Mike Yastrzemski (L) RF

Jim Jarvis (L) SS

Jake Mangum (S) CF

Brandon Lowe (L) DH

Bryan Reynolds (S) LF

Esmerlyn Valdez (R) RF

Ryan O'Hearn (L) 1B

Nick Gonzales (R) 3B

Tyler Callihan (L) 2B

Jared Triolo (R) SS

Henry Davis (R) C

Batting Average:  Jair Camargo (.500)

Hits:  Michael Harris (96)

Home Runs:  Matt Olson (24)

RBI:  Matt Olson (57)

Stolen Bases:  Ronald Acuña (15)

Wins:  Chris Sale (9)

Saves:  Raisel Iglesias (17)

ERA:  Victor Mederos (0.00)

Batting Average:  Rafael Flores (.667)

Hits:  Nick Gonzales (101)

Home Runs:  Brandon Lowe (21)

RBI:  Brandon Lowe (64)

Stolen Bases:  Oneil Cruz (21)

Wins:  Braxton Ashcraft (9)

Saves:  Gregory Soto (11)

ERA:  Evan Sisk (2.23)

Managers:

Atlanta Braves: Walt Weiss (1st season)

Pittsburgh Pirates: Don Kelly (2nd season)