ASA Stock Up & Stock Down MLB Teams

 

 

 

Boston was red hot entering the break winning 9 of their last 10 and 14 of their last16 to push near the .500 mark.  While they are still 2 games below .500, the Sox have a +27 run differential which is good for 4th best in the American League.  Their Pythagorean win/loss record is 50-44 (where they should be based on runs scored and runs allowed) which rates them as the 2nd worst “luck” team in MLB.  The Red Sox are just 8-12 in one run games but they have a .500 record vs winning teams.  Their pitching staff has the 4th best ERA in the Majors and their FIP (fielder independent pitching) and xFIP numbers rank them 5th.  After facing a top 10 strength of schedule in the first half of the season, from this point on they face the 16th most difficult slate.  Their offensive numbers (batting average, OPS, slugging percentage) rank in the bottom third of the league, however those numbers have been rising over the last month.  If that continues, this team will be dangerous after the break  

 

 

The Nats have played the most difficult schedule in the Majors to date yet still sit at right around .500.  After the break they face the 18th rated strength of schedule so an improved record is expected.  They have a positive run differential and their offense is among the best in baseball.  Washington ranks top 10 in batting average, #3 in OPS, and #1 in runs scored, stolen bases, and slugging percentage.  This line up is athletic and can rake to say the least.  Can their pitching staff do enough to help this team improve down the stretch.  We think so.  While they are not elite on the mound by any means, the Nationals have had some rough luck.  Their BABIP (batting average balls in play) is the 7th worst in MLB (opponent’s contact is finding holes) and their FIP and xFIP numbers are better than their overall ERA numbers (their ERA numbers are higher than they should be).  If their pitching numbers move to where they should be (better than they are) this team will be a tough out down the stretch.  

 

 

 

Somehow this team is 11 games above 500 but has a negative run differential.  While they have the 7th best record in MLB, their run differential ranks them 16th out of 30 teams.  That’s why the Phillies Pythagorean record is actually below .500 sitting at 47-50.  That means they sit a full 7 games higher than they should be which puts them as the luckiest team in the Majors so far this season.  To add to their “luck” so far this season, Philadelphia is a league best 19-6 in one run games and that will simply be tough to duplicate from here on out.  Some of their key offensive stats have been below average ranking 23rd in OPS, 24th in batting average and the free swinging Phillies have the 5th fewest walks in baseball.  Despite sitting with a 54-43 record, they have a losing record vs teams above .500 and will face plenty of those teams from here in out as they have the 4th most difficult SOS remaining.  Philadelphia looks like they are a bit overvalued in mid July.

 

 

The Rays win total prior to the season was sitting at 77.5.  They already have 56 wins but enter the 2nd half of the season a bit overvalued.  They sit with the best record in the American League, 18 games above .500, yet their run differential is just +32 for the season.  Based on that run differential and their overall record, Tampa is the 2nd luckiest team in the Majors at this point only behind the Phillies.  This line up has a very solid on base percentage but they don’t hit for power with just 94 homers on the season (26th) and they are just 16th in runs scored.  The pitching has been a strength sitting top 10 in ERA but their FIP is middle of the pack (15th).  They’ve also been fairly lucky with opponents hitting just .260 in BABIP (batting average balls in play) which is the 2nd lowest in baseball.  The Rays have been great at home (35-15 record) but have a losing mark on the road and their first 8 games out of the break are away from home.  On top of that, 37 of their 68 remaining games are on the road.  Look for this team to slip a bit after the All Star Break.