ASA's NFL Strength of Schedule Ratings

 

 

1)      ARIZONA CARDINALS (team win total is 4.5) – The Cardinals finished just 3-14 last year and then get stuck with one of the most difficult schedules in 2026.  Not great with a QB rotation of Jacoby Brissett, Gardner Mishew, and Carson Beck.  Arizona’s opponents in 2026 won 55% of their games last season (most in the NFL) and have an average win total projection this year of 9.3 games (most in the NFL).  They face a whopping 10 teams (out of 17 games) vs teams projected to win 10+ games and only 6 games vs teams projected to win less than 9 games.  They play 13 straight games before their bye week and they start the season with 5 of their first 6 games vs teams projected to win more than 10 games.  Brutal. 

 

2)      MIAMI DOLPHINS (team win total is 4.5) – The Fins play 9 playoff teams from last year and close out the season with 6 straight facing Denver, Chicago, Green Bay, LA Chargers, Buffalo, and New England.  Their opponents won over 54% of their games last season (2nd most) and those opponents are projected to win 155 games this year (average opponent win projecting of 9.1 games) which is the 2nd highest of any team this season.  The Dolphins have a net rest differential of -6.5 (6th worst in the NFL) and they have 2 stretches this year where they play 3 road games in a 4 week span (9 road games this year).  Tough for team breaking in new QB (Willis) and new HC (Hafley).

 

3)      LA CHARGERS (team win total is 10.5) – The Chargers have one of the worst net rest differentials for any team in the last 20 years (-24).  A big factor in that stat is the fact LA faces 4 teams coming off byes this year which is the most in the NFL tied with Philadelphia.  They start the season on a light note facing Arizona and Las Vegas at home but 5 of their 6 games following that are vs teams that made the playoffs last year and KC is their only opponent during that stretch that didn’t make last year’s post season.  LAC’s opponents won almost 53% of their games last season (9th most) and their road slate is really tough having to travel to Buffalo, Seattle, KC, LA Rams, Baltimore, and Denver.  

 

 

1)      CLEVELAND BROWNS (team win total is 6.5) – The Browns face 13 teams this season that finished with a losing record last year while facing only 4 games vs teams that made the playoffs.  The backend of their schedule should give them a chance to build some momentum late.  Following their bye week on November 22nd, Cleveland doesn’t face a single team that made the playoffs last year (7 games).  If we take out their games vs their own division (AFC North), out of their other 11 games, the Browns face 5 opponents that are projected to finish last in their division (per projected win totals).  They do have a rare 3 game road trip mid-season (one of only 3 teams that have that situation) but despite that, their overall schedule is still one of the easiest in the league.

 

2)      DETROIT LIONS (team win total is 10.5) – The Lions missed the playoffs last year with a 9-8 record and are projected to bounce back to double digit wins in 2026.  Part of that positivity is due to their weak schedule this season.  The NFC North should be one of the best divisions again in the NFL (all 4 teams finished above .500 last year), however if we remove those 6 games, Detroit’s slate is ridiculously weak.  Some of their non-division opponents include Saints, Jets, Panthers, Cardinals, Dolphins, Falcons, Titans, and Giants.  They only face 2 teams outside of the NFC North that finished last year with winning records (Patriots and Bills) and the combined record of their 11 non-divisional opponent’s last year was 76-111.  The average projected win total of Detroit’s opponents this year is 7.9 which is the lowest in the league.

 

3)      NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (team win total is 7.5) – The Saints play in the weakest division in the NFL (NFC South) which obviously plays into this strength of schedule rating.  All 4 teams in the NFC South finished with losing records last year and none are projected to win more than 9 games in 2026.  Only 3 of their 17 games this season are vs a team that made the playoffs last year.  Saints opponents this season won only 43% of their games last year (2nd worst) and are projected to average just 8 wins this year (2nd worst).  New Orleans faces only 2 teams that won more than 9 games last season (Chicago & Pittsburgh) but they do have a difficult “scheduling” stretch in starting in late November with 4 road games in 5 weeks.  Still a very light schedule this year for the Saints.