ASA's NFL Rookie of the Year Projections

Not often does a Heisman-winning, national-champion, consensus first-overall pick sit outside the top 3 for ROTY odds heading into the season. The only reason for this is because 38-year-old Kirk Cousins is thought to be the current starting quarterback for the Raiders while Mendoza develops behind him. However, from watching Cousins during his last two seasons in Atlanta, we know he has been objectively bad. In his last 24 games, Cousins has 28 touchdowns and 21 interceptions, ranking 22nd in QBR last year. So how long do we truly expect him to remain the starter while Mendoza waits his turn? It likely will not be long at all. Las Vegas has a win total of 5.5, so there is little sense in keeping their number one pick on the bench when Cousins sputters. Simply put, Mendoza is a stud, and once he is comfortable in Klint Kubiak’s offense, he will take Cousins’ job and not look back. In Weeks four through seven, the Raiders have a brutal schedule against the Chiefs, Patriots, Bills, and Rams. During that stretch, if not before, Mendoza will be installed. If Mendoza were named the starter tomorrow, he would immediately jump to the top of the ROTY odds. It will be sooner rather than later he gets his chance. 

Of all the negative buzz coming from Cleveland this training camp, there is no lack of positive buzz around KC Concepcion, who they selected 24th overall. He seems firmly in line to start, and many think he will lead the team in targets. Veteran Jerry Jeudy and rookie Denzel Boston are his only target competition. Percy Harvin comparisons have been thrown around due to KC’s versatility, making him a very intriguing pick with the ability to rack up receiving, rushing, and return stats. Harvin won offensive ROTY in 2009 with only 60 catches for 790 yards as a receiver. The Browns will likely be horrible, but the loss of Myles Garrett is good news for more pass-heavy negative game scripts. If Cleveland uses Concepcion as they indicate they have been in camp, Concepcion could be a household name by the end of his rookie year.

Thirteen wide receivers went before Thompson in the NFL draft this year. Yet, Thompson not only ran the fastest 40-time at the combine (3rd-fastest all-time) but he also led the coveted SEC in receiving yards. Those two accolades would be worthy of a day one pick for most college receivers. Now in LA, everyone knows new OC Mike McDaniel loves to stretch the field, with Thompson already making numerous splash plays with the starting offense this camp. Justin Herbert has a cannon and Thompson can already get on the field as a deep threat, but he is much more than a one-trick pony, running the entire route tree effectively against the best corners in college football. If Thompson can carve out a significant role on a projected top ten offense, the sky is the limit for him. Dare we say Mike McDaniel’s next Tyreek Hill?