ASA's NFL News & Notes

ASA’s NFL NEWS & NOTES

 

SAINTS – Are 16.5-point underdogs in Buffalo next week... This is New Orleans' biggest underdog in any game since 1975 and the matchup that day was Archie Manning, Saints (+16.5) vs. Fran Tarkenton, Vikings.  There have been 83 underdogs of more than 16 points in the NFL since 1980 and those dogs have covered at a 55% rate (44-36-3 ATS) but were 0-2 ATS last season

 

EAGLES – The Eagles are now a perfect 3-0 despite getting outgained on a YPG and YPP basis on all 3 games.  On Sunday they had a miraculous cover vs the Rams much to our dismay (Rams were our top game).  One of the toughest beats we’ve had.  Rams (+3.5) up 26-7 in the 2nd half and lose 33-26.  The ending was insane.  If you didn’t see it, which I’m sure you have, google it.  Eagles had fewer first downs, were outgained by 68 yards, had a YPP deficit of -0.8 and were outrushed 5.2 YPC to 3.2 YPC and somehow won by a TD. 

 

FALCONS – One of the strangest box scores and result you’ll ever see.  Here are the stats for Atlanta @ Carolina on Sunday.   Falcons 332 total yards, Panthers 224 total yds.  Falcons 5.0 YPP, Panthers 4.1 YPP.  Falcons 5.7 yards per rush, Panthers 3.7.  Final score Panthers 30, Falcons 0.  Turnovers are usually an issue when you see a box score like this and they were.  Atlanta had 3 turnovers, including a pick 6, that led directly to 14 of Carolina’s 30 points.  The Falcons crossed midfield on 7 of their 11 offensive possessions and didn’t score a single point.

 

PACKERS – That’s the NFL for you.  Green Bay looked like world beaters the first 2 weeks handling 2 of the top teams in the NFL (Detroit & Washington) and then lose as an 8 point favorite to 0-2 Cleveland.  GB led 10-0 with under 4:00 remaining in the game and lost 13-10.  The sequence went like this…Cleveland kicks a FG with 3:38 left to make it 10-3.  Packers Jordan Love throws an interception a few plays later that is returned by the Browns to the 4 yard line.  They score a TD to tie.  Green Bay drives into FG position, the attempt gets blocked with 27 seconds left and the Browns get into FG range and win the game.  We mentioned last week how good Cleveland’s defense is.  They held GB to 10 points on 230 yards (3.8 YPP) and the Packers averaged 2.6 YPC on the ground.  If they can somehow put together even an average offense, this Cleveland team can be really good.

 

COLTS – Who had Indianapolis starting 3-0 both SU & ATS?  With NYG castoff Daniel Jones at QB their offense ranks #2 in scoring (34.3 PPG), #2 in total offense (419 YPG), #1 in YPP offense (6.6) and #3 in rushing offense (153 YPG).  Jones currently ranks #1 in the NFL in QBR.  They’ve punted ONCE this season and have scored on 77% of their offensive possessions!  The Colts are already +5 in turnover margin which is the #1 most important stat for success in the NFL.  NFL teams with a plus turnover margin in a game win that game between 75 and 80% of the time.  That’s a long term fact.  Now 2 of their wins have come against the Dolphins and Titans, who look like 2 of the worst teams in the NFL early in the season.  We’ll find out more about Indy this Sunday as they travel for the 2nd straight week to LA to take on the Rams.

 

STEELERS – Pittsburgh is 2-1 on the season topping the Jets and Patriots and getting rolled at home vs Seattle.  However, this team is 30th in total offense (247 YPG) and 28th in total defense (386 YPG) for a YPG margin of -139 YPG which is the 2nd worst mark in the NFL ahead of only Tennessee who is 0-3.  They are the only team in the NFL that ranks in the bottom 5 in both total offense AND total defense.  In their 2 wins vs the Patriots and Jets they were outgained by 166 yards (-1.1 YPP margin) and by 123 yards (-1.4 YPP) respectively.  Pittsburgh travels to Ireland on Sunday to face Minnesota in an early 9:30 AM ET kick.

 

TEXANS – What the heck is going on with Houston’s offense?  They rank dead last in scoring at 12.7 PPG.  That’s a full 10 points down from last season when they averaged 22 PPG.  This team has had 33 offensive possessions this season and scored a grand total of 3 TD’s.  The defense is holding up their end of the bargain ranking in the top 5 in PPG allowed.  Tough to be 0-3 SU & ATS when your defense is top 5 in scoring but Houston has found a way to pull that off.