ASA's NFL News & Notes

DENVER BRONCOS – What a brutal stretch for Denver.  Here is their schedule over the last 5 weeks…@ Indianapolis, @ LA Chargers, home vs Cincinnati, @ Philadelphia, @ London vs NY Jets and now no bye after playing overseas.  On top of that, they host the Giants who are coming off a win on Thursday vs Philadelphia so they have 10 days to get ready for this game in Denver.  The Broncos have been terrorizing QB’s as they lead the NFL in sack percentage and sacks per game.  Over the last 2 games alone, vs Philly and NY Jets, they have 15 sacks.  The Giants Oline is bottom 10 in sack percentage allowed and they are giving up almost 3 sacks per game.  QB Dart is very mobile which should help although Denver faced Justin Fields and Jalen Hurts the last 2 weeks and that didn’t seem to matter.  Now is the time to make a run for the Broncos who have 4 of their next 5 games at home with 3 of those games coming vs teams that currently have losing records (Giants, Raiders and Cowboys).

 

ARIZONA CARDINALS – QB Kyler Murray sat out last week’s game @ Indianapolis due to a foot injury.  Veteran back up Jacoby Brissett came in and let the Cardinals to their highest offensive output of the season with 27 points and 400 total yards (31-27 loss).  Prior to last week, Arizona had been held under 300 total yards in 4 of their first 5 games.  Brissett threw for 320 yards which is 100 yards more than Kyler Murray best passing game this season.  Not back facing an Indy defense that came into the game allowing just 315 YPG and 17.8 PPG (3rd in the NFL).  Coming into the game the Cards ranked 23rd in total offense, 26th in scoring, and 27th in YPP with Murray under center.  With Brissett at QB they topped their averages by 85 yards, 10 points, and 0.9 YPP vs one of the better defenses in the NFL.   Head coach Jonathan Gannon has a decision to make this Sunday (hosting Green Bay) if Murray is back and ready to go.   

 

LA CHARGERS – The LA offense needs to figure out how to get in the endzone.  Their offense has been very good ranking 7th in total offense yet just 23rd in scoring offense (21 PPG).  They had a chance to bury Miami early last week but settled for 5 FG’s while scoring only 2 TD’s.  They rank dead last in the NFL in red zone TD percentage (just 35%) and 2nd in field goals per game.  They rank 28th in yards per point (17 yards per point) so they are moving the ball just not getting into the endzone.  The Chargers have had 61 offensive possessions this season and scoring only 12 TD’s.  That has to improve if they want to make the playoffs facing a tough division with KC and Denver.  

 

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS – We were on the Seahawks each of the last 2 weekends for our Top Play.  They lost 38-35 two weeks ago when TB scored 10 points in the final 1:06 of the game.  They outgained the Bucs 8.6 YPP to 7.3 YPP in that loss.  Last week they traveled to Jacksonville and dominated more than then 20-12 final score outgaining the Jags 6.4 YPP to 4.0 YPP.  This team is better than their 4-2 record.  They rank 2nd in the NFL in YPP margin and point differential at +49.  Their 2 losses came by a combined 7 points and the led with under 2:00 minutes to go in both.  Using the NFL DVOA metric (Defense adjust value over average), which we use quite often, the Seahawks are ranked as the #1 team in the NFL and rank in the top 5 both offensively and defensively.  The only other team that ranks in the top 5 on both sides of the ball (per DVOA) is the LA Rams.  They’ve been great on the road winning 10 of their last 11 games dating back to last season with 5 of those wins coming as an underdog.  Something to make note of moving forward.

 

CLEVELAND BROWNS – The Browns traded starting QB Flacco to division rival Cincinnati and decided to go with rookie Dillon Gabriel under center.  The results have been the same.  They’ve scored 26 total points the last 2 games with Gabriel calling the signals.  This Cleveland offense ranks last in scoring (13.7 PPG), 27th in total offense, 31st in YPP, 28th in rushing and 26th in passing.  3 of their 5 losses came with the defense holding their opponent to 23 points or less.  Their only win came vs Green Bay in a game they only scored 1 TD which came on a 4 yard drive with 3:00 remaining (following a Jordan Love interception).  They’ve scored only 8 offensive TD’s in 67 possessions this season.  They host the Dolphins on Sunday in a battle of 1-5 teams.

 

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS – After staring the season 0-2 with losses to the Chargers and Eagles, the Chiefs have rebounded to win 3 of 4.  Even in their 1 loss during that stretch @ Jacksonville, the Chiefs dominated the stat sheet with 7.6 YPP to 5.9 for the Jags.  Their offense kicked it in gear a few weeks ago when their top WR Xavier Worthy returned from an injury.  In their first 3 games KC averaged 20 PPG and over their last 3 they’ve upped that to 31.6 PPG.  They averaged just 307 YPG in their first 3 games and then exploded for 404 YPG over their last 3.  The speedy Worthy is averaging 11.2 yards per reception and 10.2 yards per carry since coming back.  They are 13 point favorites on Sunday vs division opponent Las Vegas.  Since Mahomes took over as KC’s starting QB in 2018, the Chiefs are 12-2 SU but just 5-9 ATS vs. the Raiders.  Last year’s games both won by the Chiefs with final scores of 27-20 and 19-17. 

 

BUFFALO BILLS – We faded the Bills each of the last 2 weeks and cashed as they lost outright to the Patriots and Falcons as favorites.  We felt Buffalo was vastly overvalued after the first 4 weeks with a perfect 4-0 record.  Fact is they played the easiest schedule in the NFL through the first 4 weeks and by quite a wide margin.  In week 1 they came from 15 points down with under 4:00 remaining to beat the Ravens scoring 17 points in the final 3:56.  While Baltimore has had some injuries, even prior to that they’ve shown they might not be near the level they were a year ago.  After that the Bills beat the Jets, Dolphins, and Saints who have a combined record of 2-16.  If we throw the Ravens in the mix, the combined record of all 4 teams the Bills have topped is just 3-21!  Despite their easy schedule, Buffalo’s point differential is +30 which is tied for just the 8th best in the NFL.  The Falcons dominated them on Monday night with 443 yards to just 291 for Buffalo.  The Bills continued to struggle stopping the run with Atlanta racking up 210 yards on the ground.  The Buffalo rush D is dead last in YPC allowed (5.8) and 31st in YPG on the ground allowed (156).  They have this weekend off and then travel to Carolina who has rushed for 239 and 216 yards in their last 2 games and the Panthers rank 4th in the NFL in rushing.