ASA's National Championship Value Plays

ASA’s VALUE PLAYS to win the NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP (as of February 24th)


VANDERBILT at +8000 (FanDuel)

 

There is definitely value with the Commodores at 80/1.  They absolutely fit our Ken Pom line criteria as of now and quite comfortably.  21 of the last 23 NCAA Champions have finished in the top 20 in offensive efficiency and in the top 40 in defensive efficiency per Ken Pomeroy metrics.  Vandy is currently 15th offensively and 20th defensively.  The only other teams that are in the top 20 in both as of February 24th are Michigan, Duke, Arizona, Florida, Houston, and Iowa State.  Those 6 teams sit in the top 7 in regards to best odds to win the National Championship and the worst number is Iowa State at 15/1.  And Vanderbilt is 80/1?  The Commodores are 21-6 on the season facing the 24th most difficult strength of schedule.  Four of their six losses have come by 4 points or less.  On offense they protect the ball ranking 12th in offensive turnover percentage, they sit top 60 in both 2 point and 3 point FG% and they make almost 78% of their FT’s.  Their defense allows low quality 3 point attempts and defends the arc well ranking top 25 in 3-point FG% allowed.  Their downside defensively is they foul a lot allowing opponents an average of 24 FT attempts per game which is outside the top 300.  The fact that FanDuel has 19 teams with better odds than Vandy with the metrics they have is simply off base.  All in all, this team will be a very dangerous 4 seed (maybe 5) that could make a deep run in the Big Dance and at 80-1 they are definitely worth a strong look.

  

 

The Boilers have had a bit of a disappointing season sitting tied for 3rd place in the Big 10 when they were the heavy favorites to win the league entering the season.  This is still a veteran team (top 20 in D1 experience per KenPom) that has all the components to get to the Final 4.  They are lethal offensively ranking 2nd in efficiency, 11th in eFG%, and top 20 in both 2 point and 3 point FG%.  They rarely turn the ball over and are top 5 nationally in assist rate.  Purdue has one of the best point guards in the country with Braden Smith (15 PPG and 9 assists per game) and with 4 starters averaging double figures scoring, this is just a tough team to defend.  On the other end of the court they are very good as well ranking 25th in defensive efficiency.  They do allow a lot of 3’s with 46% of opponent’s shots coming from beyond the arc (342nd nationally) so if they get matched up with a team that gets red hot from 3 that might not be ideal.  The Boilermakers basically have the same team as they had last season (4 of 5 starters are back) and they were upended by just 2 points in the Sweet 16 by Houston who went onto the National Championship Game.  Purdue has better efficiency numbers both offensively and defensively compared to last year’s team and they’ve shown they can get it done away from home with a 9-2 record (road & neutral).  That includes wins @ Nebraska and @ Alabama, along with a neutral site win vs a very good Texas Tech team.  They are currently projected as a 2-seed and barring a poor stretch, they should remain on that line as they will be favored in all 4 of their final regular season games.