Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres Prediction, Preview and Odds - 07/09/2026

Game Time: 10:00 pm ET, Thursday, July 9, 2026

Venue:  Petco Park, San Diego, CA

Where to Watch:  ESPN 

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Diamondbacks +104, Padres -126; Over/Under:  9 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Diamondbacks +105, Padres -125; Over/Under:  9 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Diamondbacks +105, Padres -125; Over/Under:  9 runs

Arizona Diamondbacks:  45-46 (2nd place, NL West)

San Diego Padres:  45-46 (3rd place, NL West)

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Arizona Diamondbacks:  4-6 last 10

San Diego Padres:  2-8 last 10

The Diamondbacks are entering this series off a loss and lost their 3-game series against the Milwaukee Brewers 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 45-46 record overall and have a road record of 18-26. This is the series finale of a 4-game series with the Padres on Thursday with the 3rd game still to be played on Wednesday. The Diamondbacks won the series opener on Monday and lost the 2nd game on Tuesday. Their offense ranks 26th in the MLB with a .690 OPS. Rookie pitcher José Cabrera is their starting pitcher on Wednesday while Merrill Kelly is making his start in this game on Thursday. He is 6-8 with a 5.71 ERA this season. His team lost 6 of their last 7 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season appearance, he allowed 2 ER, 1 HR, and 2 BB with 6 SO on 8 hits through 5 IP against the Milwaukee Brewers.

The Padres are entering this series off a win and lost their 4-game series against the Los Angeles Dodgers 3-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 45-46 record overall and have a home record of 24-22. This is the 4th game of a 4-game series with the Diamondbacks on Thursday with the 3rd game of this series still to be played on Wednesday. The Padres lost the 1st game of this series on Monday and won the 2nd game on Tuesday. Their offense ranks 30th in the MLB with a .671 OPS. Michael King is their starting pitcher on Wednesday while Griffin Canning is making his start in this game on Thursday. He is 1-6 with a 6.71 ERA this season. His team lost their last 2 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 1 earned run, 0 homers, and 2 walks with 4 strikeouts on 2 hits through 4 innings pitched against the Los Angeles Dodgers.

The current betting odds have the Diamondbacks listed as a slight underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Padres haven't looked good in their games this season with their 45-46 record overall, but that record has them right near the top of the NL West. They have looked a lot better in their own ballpark though with their 24-22 home record this season. Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks haven't looked great in their games this season with their 45-46 record overall which has them right in the middle of the NL West. They have been a bad road team too with their 18-26 road record this year. The Diamondbacks are 4-6 in their last 10 games and haven't looked great lately, but they have looked a lot better than the Padres who are 2-8 in their last 10 games and have been in a big slump. These two teams have 2 of the worst offenses in MLB too and neither team is going to have a good starter here, but the edge still goes to the Diamondbacks with the more reliable starter. Kelly is on the mound for the Diamondbacks here and he hasn't looked great this season. He is 6-8 with a 5.71 ERA and the team has had some trouble with him lately. They have lost 6 of their last 7 games with him starting, but he only gave up 2 earned runs in his last start and he has had some good starts like that this year. The Padres are going with Canning in this one and he has looked terrible this season. He is 1-6 with a 6.71 ERA and he has been giving up a ton of runs all year. He only gave up 1 earned run in his last start, but that hasn't been a common theme for him and the team has still lost 2 games in a row now with him starting too. Look for the Diamondbacks to take advantage of this better pitching matchup, especially since they do have the better offense. The best way to place a bet here is on the Diamondbacks to win this game. 

Diamondbacks Padres Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Thursday, July 9, 2026 (10:00 pm ET start time) is Diamondbacks 6 Padres 5.

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Arizona Diamondbacks: 213-202 (-3.6 units) on the moneyline in all games. 150-141 (-3.7 units) on the moneyline against right-handed starters. 98-84 (-8.3 units) on the moneyline when playing against a team with a losing record. 26-18 UNDER vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse.

San Diego Padres: 234-192 (+21.3 units) on the moneyline in all games. 124-88 (+8.7 units) on the moneyline in home games. 170-138 (+16 units) on the moneyline against right-handed starters. 17-10 UNDER at home when the money line is +125 to -125.

Arizona Diamondbacks:  M. Soroka (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Lower-Body. J. Lawlar (LF) Ten Day IL - Hamstring. R. Nelson (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. J. McCann (C) Ten Day IL - Quad. B. Walston (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. C. Mena (SP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. A. Puk (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. C. Burnes (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. J. Martinez (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. A. Saalfrank (RP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder.

San Diego Padres:  F. Fermin (C) Ten Day IL - Head. R. Vasquez (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Ankle. J. Adam (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Shoulder. D. Morgan (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Knee. L. Giolito (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Elbow. J. Estrada (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Knee. R. Laureano (LF) Sixty Day IL - Hip. N. Pivetta (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. M. Waldron (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Arm. B. Hoeing (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. J. Musgrove (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.

“This game was won and lost in the first inning. I feel like if we got some slug in that situation, Zac gets a little extra push, it might be a totally different outcome.” - Torey Lovullo after his team’s loss against the Padres in their game on Tuesday. 

“That was Buck Showalter style: Just throw him into the fire and see what he’s got. We planned for Jhony to pitch tonight. We felt good about the way he’d been throwing in Triple-A. It ended up being a really good spot for him and a good matchup.” - Craig Stammen after his team’s win against the Diamondbacks in their game on Tuesday.

Ketel Marte (S) 2B

Geraldo Perdomo (S) SS

Corbin Carroll (L) RF

Gabriel Moreno (R) DH

Max Kepler (L) LF

Nolan Arenado (R) 3B

Pavin Smith (L) 1B

James McCann (R) C

Tim Tawa (R) CF

Fernando Tatis Jr. (R) RF

Jackson Merrill (L) CF

Xander Bogaerts (R) SS

Manny Machado (R) 3B

Gavin Sheets (L) DH

Jake Cronenworth (L) 1B

Luis Campusano (R) C

Samad Taylor (R) LF

Sung-Mun Song (L) 2B

Batting Average:  Jordan Lawlar (.316)

Hits:  Ketel Marte (93)

Home Runs:  Ketel Marte (17)

RBI:  Ketel Marte (54)

Stolen Bases:  Geraldo Perdomo (14)

Wins:  Michael Soroka (8)

Saves:  Paul Sewald (20)

ERA:  Taylor Clarke (2.06)

Batting Average:  Samad Taylor (.330)

Hits:  Fernando Tatis (99)

Home Runs:  Manny Machado (18)

RBI:  Manny Machado (51)

Stolen Bases:  Fernando Tatis (21)

Wins:  Randy Vásquez (6)

Saves:  Mason Miller (23)

ERA:  Jhony Brito (0.00)

Managers:

Arizona Diamondbacks: Torey Lovullo (10th season)

San Diego Padres: Craig Stammen (1st season)