by Hollywood Sports
Saturday, Jan 31, 2026I suffered a lackluster month in football, but I did find a moment of clarity in backing the Miami (FL) Hurricanes as an underdog in their national championship game clash with the Indiana Hoosiers.
I considered Indiana to be a really good team — but my instincts did not like this situation for them at all. The situation reminded me of the 2003 Fiesta Bowl when Ohio State upset an undefeated Miami (FL) team that was the reigning national champions, which was loaded with future NFL players as an 11.5-point underdog. This Hoosiers team was not as talented as that historic Hurricanes team — but the circumstances were similar, with this game risking seeming to be a fait accompli after their blowout victories against Alabama and Oregon in their two playoff games.
I didn’t love that this was just their third game since December 6th. In hindsight, I’m not sure either victory will age well. The Crimson Tide could not run the ball — and that left their offense exposed against well-coached top-level defenses. And then it only took five minutes into their game with the Ducks that I was cursing myself for backing a Dan Lanning-coached team in a big game. Oregon quarterback Dante Moore made costly mistakes early and often in that game, which immediately impacted the game script. The Ducks’ defensive line was not as stout as previous incarnations under Lanning. Those two victories helped inflate the line and probably push it past the touchdown key number.
The Hoosiers scored no more than 27 points four times this season. Four of their victories were decided by 10 points or less — including two wins against Ohio State and Penn State by just a field goal and one win (against Iowa!) by only five points. The common thread in those four games is that Indiana failed to rush for more than 118 yards in those contests — and they did not generate more than 3.5 Yards-Per-Carry in those four games. Now they faced a Miami (FL) run defense that ranks sixth in the nation by holding their opponents to just 3.0 Yards-Per-Carry.
Head coach Curt Cignetti’s teams at James Madison and now Indiana had been point spread covering machines — his teams had a 33-19 ATS mark in his head coaching career, including an 18-10 ATS record with the Hoosiers. But the cracks in the armor, where his teams do not consistently overachieve, were against teams with tough run defenses. In his career, his teams had failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their 10 games against teams that hold their opponents to no more than 3.5 YPC, including a 3-3 ATS mark with Indiana. In his six games with the Hoosiers, when the Total is set in the 42.5-49 point range, they were just 3-3 ATS.
God help us, I was backing Hurricanes head coach Mario Cristobal with his sketchy game management — and the penalties his team was destined to commit would be infuriating. But I did have confidence that Cristobal would not engage in the fast pace as his team did against Ole Miss, but instead manage the game to get into the fourth quarter. Get Indiana worried that their perfect season is slipping away! Inspire confidence in his players, who should have their beliefs enabled by the NFL Hall of Fame alumni patrolling the sidelines next to them. Miami’s strength is their physicality on both sides of the line of scrimmage — something that Alabama and Oregon lacked.
For the sake of argument, I conceded that the Hoosiers are the better-coached team (but it may not be by as wide a margin as one may assume). But there was a solid case that the Hurricanes have more top-end talent with three projected first-round NFL draft picks. Defensive end Rueben Bain Jr. may be the best player on the field. These are the type of games that Cristobal gets Miami to overachieve. The Hurricanes had covered the point spread in 7 straight games against teams ranked in the top 25 in the Associated Press poll. Indiana generated 6.25 Yards-Per-Play and 9.6 Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game — but Miami (FL) had covered the point spread in 6 straight games against teams who average 6.25 or more YPP, and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games against teams who average 8.3 or more YPA. And while the Hoosiers score 42.6 Points-Per-Game, the Hurricanes under Cristobal had covered the point spread in 5 straight games against teams that score 37 or more PPG.
Playing on their home field certainly would help — while I was not expecting an overly partisan crowd given the huge Indiana alumni base, the Miami players will have the advantage of familiarity and comfort playing on their home field (and perhaps embrace a sense of destiny as they stand next to Michael Irvin).
Lastly, I thought it would be a mistake to quickly dismiss the Hurricanes as simply an also-ran ACC team. They lost two one-possession games against Louisville and SMU — but their resume featuring victories against Ohio State, Mississippi (who beat Georgia), Texas A&M, and even Notre Dame to begin the season stacked up favorably to Indiana’s best wins. ACC teams may have entered this postseason with only nine victories in their last 39 games against teams from the Big Ten or SEC, with an 11-28 ATS mark in those contests, but the ACC had won and covered the point spread in 5 of their 6 games against the Big Ten and SEC this postseason. I thought one of the lessons of this Indiana team is that success in this new era of the transfer portal and NIL means that national champions require a roster full of blue-chip players. But the flip side of that coin is that programs that recruit well — especially on the line of scrimmage — have closed the gap because the best teams are just not quite as elite as they once were. And I did not even yet mention Carson Beck, who had a 36-6 record as a starting quarterback and will have a chip on his shoulder as the once projected first-round NFL draft pick.
I expected a close game — and that’s what we got. While Indiana controlled the first half and went into halftime with a 10-0 lead, the Hurricanes did stick around to make the final result in doubt in the fourth quarter. The Hoosiers pulled out a 27-21 victory, but Miami outgained them by +25 net yards while only giving up 317 total yards. In the end, it might have been Indiana’s blocked punt late in the third quarter, which they recovered in the Hurricanes’ end zone, that made the difference in the game. Miami did cover the point spread, and we won our 25* College Football Game of the Year. Thank God.
Best of luck — Frank.
I considered Indiana to be a really good team — but my instincts did not like this situation for them at all. The situation reminded me of the 2003 Fiesta Bowl when Ohio State upset an undefeated Miami (FL) team that was the reigning national champions, which was loaded with future NFL players as an 11.5-point underdog. This Hoosiers team was not as talented as that historic Hurricanes team — but the circumstances were similar, with this game risking seeming to be a fait accompli after their blowout victories against Alabama and Oregon in their two playoff games.
I didn’t love that this was just their third game since December 6th. In hindsight, I’m not sure either victory will age well. The Crimson Tide could not run the ball — and that left their offense exposed against well-coached top-level defenses. And then it only took five minutes into their game with the Ducks that I was cursing myself for backing a Dan Lanning-coached team in a big game. Oregon quarterback Dante Moore made costly mistakes early and often in that game, which immediately impacted the game script. The Ducks’ defensive line was not as stout as previous incarnations under Lanning. Those two victories helped inflate the line and probably push it past the touchdown key number.
The Hoosiers scored no more than 27 points four times this season. Four of their victories were decided by 10 points or less — including two wins against Ohio State and Penn State by just a field goal and one win (against Iowa!) by only five points. The common thread in those four games is that Indiana failed to rush for more than 118 yards in those contests — and they did not generate more than 3.5 Yards-Per-Carry in those four games. Now they faced a Miami (FL) run defense that ranks sixth in the nation by holding their opponents to just 3.0 Yards-Per-Carry.
Head coach Curt Cignetti’s teams at James Madison and now Indiana had been point spread covering machines — his teams had a 33-19 ATS mark in his head coaching career, including an 18-10 ATS record with the Hoosiers. But the cracks in the armor, where his teams do not consistently overachieve, were against teams with tough run defenses. In his career, his teams had failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their 10 games against teams that hold their opponents to no more than 3.5 YPC, including a 3-3 ATS mark with Indiana. In his six games with the Hoosiers, when the Total is set in the 42.5-49 point range, they were just 3-3 ATS.
God help us, I was backing Hurricanes head coach Mario Cristobal with his sketchy game management — and the penalties his team was destined to commit would be infuriating. But I did have confidence that Cristobal would not engage in the fast pace as his team did against Ole Miss, but instead manage the game to get into the fourth quarter. Get Indiana worried that their perfect season is slipping away! Inspire confidence in his players, who should have their beliefs enabled by the NFL Hall of Fame alumni patrolling the sidelines next to them. Miami’s strength is their physicality on both sides of the line of scrimmage — something that Alabama and Oregon lacked.
For the sake of argument, I conceded that the Hoosiers are the better-coached team (but it may not be by as wide a margin as one may assume). But there was a solid case that the Hurricanes have more top-end talent with three projected first-round NFL draft picks. Defensive end Rueben Bain Jr. may be the best player on the field. These are the type of games that Cristobal gets Miami to overachieve. The Hurricanes had covered the point spread in 7 straight games against teams ranked in the top 25 in the Associated Press poll. Indiana generated 6.25 Yards-Per-Play and 9.6 Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game — but Miami (FL) had covered the point spread in 6 straight games against teams who average 6.25 or more YPP, and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games against teams who average 8.3 or more YPA. And while the Hoosiers score 42.6 Points-Per-Game, the Hurricanes under Cristobal had covered the point spread in 5 straight games against teams that score 37 or more PPG.
Playing on their home field certainly would help — while I was not expecting an overly partisan crowd given the huge Indiana alumni base, the Miami players will have the advantage of familiarity and comfort playing on their home field (and perhaps embrace a sense of destiny as they stand next to Michael Irvin).
Lastly, I thought it would be a mistake to quickly dismiss the Hurricanes as simply an also-ran ACC team. They lost two one-possession games against Louisville and SMU — but their resume featuring victories against Ohio State, Mississippi (who beat Georgia), Texas A&M, and even Notre Dame to begin the season stacked up favorably to Indiana’s best wins. ACC teams may have entered this postseason with only nine victories in their last 39 games against teams from the Big Ten or SEC, with an 11-28 ATS mark in those contests, but the ACC had won and covered the point spread in 5 of their 6 games against the Big Ten and SEC this postseason. I thought one of the lessons of this Indiana team is that success in this new era of the transfer portal and NIL means that national champions require a roster full of blue-chip players. But the flip side of that coin is that programs that recruit well — especially on the line of scrimmage — have closed the gap because the best teams are just not quite as elite as they once were. And I did not even yet mention Carson Beck, who had a 36-6 record as a starting quarterback and will have a chip on his shoulder as the once projected first-round NFL draft pick.
I expected a close game — and that’s what we got. While Indiana controlled the first half and went into halftime with a 10-0 lead, the Hurricanes did stick around to make the final result in doubt in the fourth quarter. The Hoosiers pulled out a 27-21 victory, but Miami outgained them by +25 net yards while only giving up 317 total yards. In the end, it might have been Indiana’s blocked punt late in the third quarter, which they recovered in the Hurricanes’ end zone, that made the difference in the game. Miami did cover the point spread, and we won our 25* College Football Game of the Year. Thank God.
Best of luck — Frank.
