Anatomy of a 15-1 Winner: Handicapping Matt Fitzpatrick at the PGA Valspar Championship

by Hollywood Sports

Monday, Mar 30, 2026
Matt Fitzpatrick made a putt just under 14 feet on the 72nd hole in regulation to secure a one-stroke victory against Davis Lipsky to win the PGA Valspar Challenge on March 22nd. It was a moment of redemption for Fitzpatrick, who had the lead going into the 17th hole on Sunday the previous week at THE PLAYERS Championship before blowing that lead to Cam Young. And it was good for Hollywood Sports, who suffered two straight first-place tickets slip through their fingers late on a Sunday after backing both Shane Lowry at the PGA Cognizant Classic and then Fitzpatrick at THE PLAYERS two weeks later, only to both golfers lose their lead in the final two holes of the event. 

Despite the late collapse at THE PLAYERS, there were several good reasons to continue to invest in Fitzpatrick at the PGA Valspar Championship. Fitzpatrick had his lead late week at THE PLAYERS before Cameron Young birdied the 17th hole. Young then hit the longest drive on the 18th hole ever at TPC Sawgrass of 375 yards to put him in a great opportunity for a birdie. Fitzpatrick hit his drive into the rough. But Young missed his birdie putt — leaving Fitzpatrick with a 12-footer to force a playoff. Yet the Englishman missed the putt and had to settle for second place. 

Despite the disappointment, I expected the veteran not to be impacted emotionally by the setback. Fitzpatrick had never been in better form when it comes to his driver and iron play. He had lost strokes versus the field in the Tee-to-Green metric just once since last June. Three starts ago resulted in a 14th-place finish at Pebble Beach for the Englishman. He gained +2.8 strokes per round versus the field Off-the-Tee — and the +7.8 shots he gained per round in his Approach were the best result of his career. He struggled with his irons two weeks — but he had ranked 8th, 3rd, and 11th in the field in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green in his previous three tournaments before his great showing l last week. His ranking of 15th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green is a career high. 

The former US Open winner had made the cut in every professional event worldwide since the Masters last April. He won the DP World Championship in the fall. He finished in ninth place last month at the PGA WM Phoenix Open. He ranked seventh on the tour in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. 

His putter has held him back this season — but he ranked 30th in Shots-Gained: Putting last year, so this seemed like just a temporary blip. There was a good case to be made that his struggles with his blade are simply a product of his struggles on the Poa Annua surfaces that dominate the west coast events. He lost -5.75 strokes versus the field with his putter at The Genesis Invitational. But with the tour moving to Florida, that meant more Bermuda green putting surfaces that Fitzpatrick prefers. In the last two seasons, Fitzpatrick had gained +0.66 strokes per round versus the field when putting on Bermuda greens, going into last week. It was his fourth trip to the Copperhead course, where he finished in a tie for fifth place in 2022. I love an in-form Fitzpatrick — and we were on him in 2022 when he won the US Open.

Fitzpatrick won the Valspar Challenge by finishing 11-under. All four of his rounds were at least three-under par. He went bogey-free in the final 36 holes. It was his fourth victory on the PGA Tour — and our first win in 2026 after enduring those two prior near-misses. 

Best of luck — Frank.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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