ALCS Starting Pitching Considerations

The ALCS is set as the Seattle Mariners and Toronto Blue Jays will face off in the best of seven series starting on October 12. With a longer series, the pitching plans could be adjusted compared with the ALDS games and here is a look at the possible starting options for both teams with a spot in the World Series on the line.  

SEATTLE MARINERS 

Bryan Woo – A big question for the Mariners will be if Woo is healthy enough to be added to the ALCS roster. After the marathon Game 5 Friday night to win the ALDS, the starting options are not at ideal rest for Seattle, but Woo could be a Game 1 starter if he is cleared. Woo has never pitched in the postseason, but he had an excellent regular season with a 2.94 ERA and 15 wins, while posting a 9.6 K/9. Like most Seattle pitchers, Woo had stronger home splits, but he still had a 3.40 ERA in 98 road innings, and he had a quality start in his only career Rogers Centre start in April despite taking a loss. 

Luis Castillo – The Game 3 starter in the ALDS, Castillo has pitched extremely well in his limited playoff opportunities with Cincinnati in 2020 and with the Mariners in 2022 and now 2025. In nearly 26 innings of work his ERA is 1.40 and he has not allowed a run in six innings so far this postseason, pitching nearly five innings in Game 3 last Saturday and then making 15 pitches in extra innings to pick up the win for the Mariners in Game 5 on Friday. Castillo’s light workload on Friday and his veteran status are likely to keep him as a serious option to start Game 1 or Game 2 for the Mariners in Toronto. Castillo was far better in his home splits this season however as his road ERA was 4.71 in the regular season, which is exactly his career ERA in 21 innings at the Rogers Centre as well. 

Bryce Miller – The Game 4 starter on Wednesday, Miller was one of the few starting options for Seattle that didn’t pitch Friday. It would still be a short rest turnaround, but Miller only threw 55 pitches in Game 4, in what was his postseason debut. Miller only made 18 starts in the regular season and had a 5.68 ERA to fall sharply from his strong 2024 numbers as in a vacuum he is Seattle’s #5 starter. He has the credentials to be considered to start in Game 1 or Game 2, but he did have his worst start of the season against the Blue Jays in May, allowing seven runs in five innings, and he has never pitched at the Rogers Centre. 

Logan Gilbert – With a strong start in Seattle’s Game 3 in Detroit for the ALDS, Gilbert has proven himself in the postseason. He also threw 34 pitches over two scoreless innings for the Mariners in Game 5 on Friday as he won’t likely be available in the first two games of the ALCS and will likely be slotted for a start back in Seattle in Game 3 or 4. Gilbert allowed seven hits and two runs while lifted in an early season start in Toronto this season, but he does have a 2.79 career ERA at the Rogers Centre, even while his career ERA vs. the Blue Jays is 5.24. 

George Kirby – Kirby started Game 1 and Game 5 of the ALDS including being controversially taken out after just 66 pitches on Friday and watching the first batter faced by the bullpen hit a two-run home run to end his scoreless outing. Kirby allowed two runs over five innings in Game 1 of the ALDS and his postseason ERA is just 1.50 over 18 innings as he did not allow a run in two appearances in the 2022 playoffs, including picking up the save in a win at Toronto. In the regular season Kirby has a 6.28 career ERA vs. the Blue Jays however and his lone start at the Rogers Centre was a disaster in April of 2024, allowing five runs in four innings. Kirby will likely start Game 3 or 4 in Seattle. 

TORONTO BLUE JAYS 

Kevin Gausman – While Game 1 of the ALDS for the Blue Jays turned into a blowout, it was just 2-0 game through five innings and Gausman was credited with a run in the sixth inning, falling an out short of a quality start. Gausman owns a 4.31 ERA in his postseason career with his teams 3-6 in his starts, but he is the logical starting option to start this series for Toronto. There wasn’t a big difference between the home and road splits for Gausman, with slightly better numbers on the road and he pitched far better after the All-Star break compared with his first half numbers. Gausman allowed three runs and seven hits but picked up a win vs. the Mariners in Seattle in May. He has a 2.94 career ERA vs. the Mariners over 70 innings and a 3.44 ERA at T-Mobile Park over nine appearances. 

Trey Yesavage – 22-year old rookie Yesavage had an amazing postseason debut, getting 16 outs without allowing a hit while striking out 11. He will be at the forefront of Toronto’s pitching plans in the ALCS, even after pitching just 14 innings in the regular season. 

Shane Bieber – Coming back from injury Bieber was dealt by the eventual AL Central champion Guardians to the Blue Jays at the trade deadline. Bieber has been pretty good in his return making seven starts, though without the strikeout rate of his best seasons. Bieber pitched for Cleveland in the 2020 and 2022 playoffs, pitching very poorly in his only postseason start in his 2020 Cy Young season. Bieber did pitch well in two starts that were both Cleveland wins in the 2022 playoffs though his career postseason ERA is still 5.23 after he allowed three runs and picked up just eight outs in Game 3 in New York on Tuesday in the ALDS. 

Chris Bassitt – After ending his regular season early with back inflammation, Bassitt was left off the ALDS roster. Bassitt had another solid season and has now made 30 or more starts in four consecutive seasons. He has occasional rough outings and occasional dominant outings, winding up with a 3.96 ERA for the season. His playoff appearances came in 2020 with Oakland and in 2022 with the Mets as this will be his first postseason with the Blue Jays. His career postseason ERA is 4.20 with one quality start and two four-innings outings. He has not pitched since September 18, however and his availability to be added for the ALCS isn’t clear yet. 

Max Scherzer – The future Hall of Famer and two-time World Series champion was also left off the ALDS roster. Scherzer did pitch a simulated game last week, and he will be considered as a starting option in the ALCS. While his 5.19 ERA this season didn’t match his career numbers, Scherzer has a  3.78 ERA in 143 postseason innings. He allowed seven runs in fewer than 10 innings in the World Series run for the Rangers in 2023 but still commands plenty of respect on the mound. In over 57 career innings vs. the Mariners, he has a 2.97 ERA including a 3.23 ERA at T-Mobile, for a lower ERA than his career ERA at the Rogers Centre. 

Louis Varland – The Blue Jays used Varland as an opener in Game 4 of the ALDS in New York and he did his job getting four outs on 20 pitches. Varland pitched in all four games of the ALDS and had three scoreless outings. He had made 23 career starts as a versatile option that could again be used as an opener if Toronto opts for a bullpen game at some point in the series. 

Eric Lauer – There are not many left-handed pitchers on either ALCS team as Lauer is likely the only possible left-hander to be in the conversation to get a start. Seattle’s lineup is mostly right-handed outside of switch hitters Cal Raleigh and Jorge Polanco, while Josh Naylor and J.P. Crawford bat from the left side towards the bottom of the order. Lauer is unlikely to start in this series but will be ready for an extended outing if needed, having pitched over 104 regular season innings in a terrific comeback season, including making 15 starts. Lauer only pitched two innings in the ALCS over two appearances, and he allowed three runs, but he did make a postseason start for the Brewers in 2021 and he has a 1.46 ERA in his career at T-Mobile Park.