3 CFB Season Win Total Unders I Like

College football week zero is this Saturday. We have five games to get us ready for the big week one action next weekend. Season win totals are one of my favorite bets, and I’ve been successful in those in the long run. Let’s take a look at three season win total unders that I like.

Arkansas State under 5.5 (-140) The Arkansas State Red Wolves won 8 games last year, but they were 126th out of 134 teams in the country in yards per play margin. They were unbeaten in one score games. Arkansas State is a prime regression candidate this year. The Red Wolves are one of the weakest teams in the country in the trenches. It is extremely hard to keep winning when you are at this kind of a deficit and are weak on the offensive and defensive lines. I think they will only be favored in three or possibly four games this season. I think they’ll underperform this year. 

Marshall under 5.5 (-175) The juice has gotten much worse in this one in recent weeks, and I prefer the Sun Belt wins under 3.5 that is lower juice if you have that as an option. Still, I think under 5.5 on this one is an excellent wager. Marshall lost nearly everyone including their coaching staff to Southern Miss. The Thundering Herd are very short on talent this season. Marshall has a tough schedule where the easier teams are on the road and the toughest teams are at home in the conference. They no longer have a strong defense to fall back on like they have had in recent seasons.  I see them struggling to top four wins. 

UAB under 4.5 (-140) The UAB Blazers tried to make a big splash by hiring Trent Dilfer a few years ago. I can’t blame them for trying an outside the box hire. They expected Dilfer to bring in some big names and the wins to follow. The recruiting hasn’t gone as well as expected, and the  Blazers have a very big problem on the offensive and defensive lines. The Blazers have a good quarterback, but the weapons around him make it tough for him to excel. The UAB defense gives up way too high of a success rate. Dilfer is absolutely on the hot seat, and if this season starts poorly for UAB things could spiral out of control.