2026 Belmont Stakes Preview

We've recently seen the Kentucky Derby run on a date that wasn't the first Saturday in May.  And even more recently we've seen the Belmont Stakes run on a track that wasn't Belmont Park.  But since 1909 we've never seen the Preakness held anywhere other than Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore.  That's about to change as Pimlico is being rebuilt and for likely the next two years the second jewel of the Triple Crown will be contested at Laurel Park in Laurel, Maryland.  The attendance will be limited and there won't be an infield party, but that shouldn't dampen the mood as a very competitive field is set to contest the Preakness on Saturday at approximately 7:00 pm.  Here is a look at some of the likely Contenders, Pretenders, and Live Longshots this Saturday:

   

Contenders:

   

 #1 Taj Mahal - Usually the winner of the ungraded "win and you're in" Frederico Tesio Stakes at Laurel is an afterthought in the Preakness.  Not this year.  This son of Nyquist who is owned by the SF Racing partnership would normally be in Bob Baffert's barn, but the group decided he should go east and train with local star Brittany Russell.  As a result, Taj Mahal has had all three of his races right here at Laurel Park and has yet to lose with his most impressive effort being in that Tesio race at 1 1/8 miles on April 18.  He led gate-to-wire in that one and appeared to have plenty left in the tank in earning a gaudy speed figure that says he belongs with this more accomplished group.  Regular local jockey -- and Trainer's husband -- Sheldon Russell will ride and that's another plus as most of the other jockeys are not all that familiar with Laurel.

   

 #9 Iron Honor - This Chad Brown-trained son of Nyquist skipped the Derby after a disappointing seventh place finish in the April 4th Wood Memorial at Aqueduct.  But you can throw out that Wood effort as Iron Honor had an impossible 12th post position from which jockey Manny Franco tried to use his natural speed to go to the lead (he couldn't) and the horse ended up fading badly.  Iron Honor's races prior to the Wood indicate that he belongs with this group.  Brown has named his #1 jockey, Flavien Prat to ride Iron Honor and (with no disrespect) that's a big upgrade from Franco.  Iron Honor has been made the morning line favorite, but you still might get 9-2 on him come Saturday and that would be a great price for this horse and a trainer who knows how to win this race (Brown won it in 2017 and 2022).

   

Pretenders:

   

 #2 Ocelli - The Whitworth Beckman-trained son of Connect was a deserving 70-1 in the Kentucky Derby and he shocked almost everyone by taking the lead briefly in the stretch before being run down by Golden Tempo and Renegade.  For a moment, it seemed like we might have another Rich Strike situation on our hands (another horse who seemed impossible and who drew into the race at the last minute only to win at 80-1 in 2022).  But because he finished 3rd in that race and is one of only three Derby horses to come to the Preakness, Ocelli will have a relatively short price.  Don't get sucked in.  He is still a maiden (has never won a race) and they paid only $12,000 for him at auction.  Although an up-and-coming young trainer, Beckman has only won at less than 5% of his Graded Stakes entries. 

   

 #10 Napoleon Solo - This is a tale of two horses.  The Napoleon Solo that ran as a two-year-old in 2025 looked like he could emerge as one of the top east coast-based Derby Contenders as a three-year-old in 2026.  But both of Napoleon Solo's efforts this year have been dreadful.  The Chad Summers-trained son of Liam's Map went off as one of the favorites in the February 28 Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream Park only to fade badly and finish 5th.  He ran almost the exact same race in the April 4 Wood Memorial after switching jockeys from Kendrick Carmouche to Paco Lopez.  If he tries to vie for the lead again in this race, it's likely he will be swallowed up by better horses once again and will finish up the track.  He may get some action at the windows from those who think the time off might get him back to his 2025 form.  Save your money. 

   

Live Longshots:

   

#4 Robusta - Here is one of the other Preakness entrants who ran in the Kentucky Derby.  And yes, he finished 14th in that race (when Ocelli finished 3rd).  And yes, he only has a maiden victory to his credit so far in six races.  But there is something about this Doug O'Neil-trained son of Accelerate that says, "give me one more chance."  If Robusta can get back to his California form where he ran second in the San Felipe -- beating Santa Anita Derby winner So Happy -- then he should have a real shot in today's second jewel at what should be a very big price.  Owner Calumet Farm usually is very conservative with its runners, so the fact that it wants to take a shot with this one in the Preakness says something about his chances.

   

#5 Talkin - Although this son of Good Magic only has a maiden score to his credit (last Summer at Saratoga) there are several things to like here.  Danny Gargan is an up-and-coming trainer who is no stranger to winning big races (he readied Dornoch for victories in the Belmont and Haskell Stakes in 2024) and Talkin is one of only two horses in this field who has run in four Graded Stakes (the aforementioned Robusta being the other).  Talkin's third place finish in the Blue Grass Stakes was better than it looks on paper and Joel Rosario is a clever, veteran jockey who would very much like to add this race to his Kentucky Derby (2013) and Belmont (2014, 2019) triumphs.  The big question is whether Talkin can be successful around two turns, but you're going to get a very big price to try to find out.

   

#8 Bull by the Horns - This son of Essential Quality is an improving colt who was being considered for the Peter Pan Stakes at Aqueduct before Saffie Joseph decided to point him here.  He won his last race, the Rushaway Stakes on March 21, on the artificial surface at Turfway Park, in impressive fashion.  Trainer Joseph knows a thing or two about winning big races, so it's a risky endeavor for a handicapper to throw out one of his horses.  Bull by the Horns figures to get a stalking trip and if he is in a good position as they turn for home, he just might be able to spring an upset at what figures to be a HUGE price.  He gets extra points if veteran jock Johnny Velasquez decides to ride him back today (Velasquez was on him in that last race at Turfway).

Good luck, as always,
Al McMordie